Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation

The drivers of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are studied within a framework based on Cagan’s model of hyperinflation. In the model, the prices of the cryptocurrencies are driven by stochastic adoption and velocity shocks as well as endogenous expectations of future prices. The model is estimated with data for prices, transaction volumes, and money supplies. A majority of price fluctuations in both currencies can be attributed to shocks in adoption, velocity shocks are much less important. The money demand sensitivity to expected price changes is estimated to be larger for Bitcoin than for Ethereum, and both have higher sensitivity than fiat currencies during episodes of hyperinflation.     

The role of socially rich photos in generating favorable donation behavior on charity websites

While online retail sites succeed in reinforcing perceptions of human warmth on their websites thanks to more and more interactive technologies, the charitable sector cannot, for lack of human, technical and financial resources, make use of such technologies. This research paper demonstrates the potential of a simple tool: the socially rich photo. Although the literature has extensively documented how photos impact visitor behavior in online environments, research in the context of donations through charity websites is rare and has provided contradictory results. By focusing more closely on the role of the individual represented in such photos (the recipient of a donation versus the donor), our studies, conducted in France, offer additional insights on the subject as well as managerial advice for organizations.     

Industry risk transmission channels and the spillover effects of specific determinants in China’s stock market: A spatial econometrics approach

This paper uses a spatial econometrics approach to study the industry risks in China’s stock market. We comprehensively consider the real linkage and information risk transmission channels and analyze the risk spillovers of specific determinants. Our empirical results show the following: 1) The real linkage channel and information channel are both effective transmission channels for driving spillover effects, and the information channel is of the utmost importance. 2) The spillover effects of specific determinants exist and are persistent. The superposition of spillover effects may lead to extreme risk. 3) The transmission channels and spillover effects are asymmetric in different regimes.     

On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.     

Insurance activity,real output,and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS

This paper fills some empirical gaps by evaluating the causal associations among insurance premiums, real output, and geopolitical risk in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) from 1985 to 2017. We utilize a newly-developed Granger-causality quantile analysis to assess the causal relationships among the series under consideration in each distribution quantile. Our empirical results reveal unidirectional causality that runs from real output and geopolitical risk to insurance activities in Brazil and South Africa. We also observe bi-directional lower-tail causality among real output, insurance premiums, and geopolitical risk in Russia. Findings also present bi-directional causality among real output, insurance premiums, and geopolitical risk at different quantiles. Knowledge of these causal relationships can prevent governments from conducting a ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy.     

跨国并购执行阶段财务风险研究

改革开放以来,中国经济持续高速增长,国内市场逐步开放,国家对“一带一路”的推进也使越来越多的企业试图通过海外并购的方式扩大其国际市场份额,以此提高企业竞争力。但即便有国家政策的支持,想要完成海外并购依旧是困难重重,因此,系统分析所存在的财务风险并加以控制变成重中之重。论文对跨国并购现状进行概述,随后重点分析在执行阶段所存在的几点财务风险,并提出相应的防范建议。     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in Africa

In order to account for currency substitution, the exchange rate is included in the demand for money. More recent studies have demonstrated that exchange rate changes could have asymmetric effects on the demand for money or domestic currency. In this paper, we consider the experiences of 18 African countries and show that in most countries, indeed exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects on the demand for money. However, short-run effects translate to long-run asymmetric effects only in a limited number of African countries.     

The “Six Ws” of sustainable development risks

Risk management in an organization represents a decisive function in seizing opportunities and managing the risks that can affect a business's reputation, prosperity, growth, value creation, stakeholder engagement, long-term survival, and a firm's contribution to sustainable development. For this paper, we conduct a systematic literature review of 148 indexed studies and uses the “Six Ws” (what, who, why, where, when, and how) approach to understand the linkages between sustainability and risk management. This study's findings reveal that the management of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns plays a mitigation's function on business risks.     

Refining e-shoppers’ perceived risks: Development and validation of new measurement scale

Due to the rapid expansion of perceived e-shopping risks, and highly isolated and inconsistent presentation of literature about this concept, understanding e-shopper's behavior has become more difficult. In this regard, this study brings together different views, evidences and facts about perceived e-shopping risks from both scholars and practitioners of South-East Asian and Western countries. It then interprets the information in the form of a new scale which offers more adequacy, assemblage and uniformity than the existing models of perceived risks of e-shoppers. The new scale of construct has 11 dimensions comprising a pool of 38 items, which has been empirically validated through the data collected from 537 Malaysian e-shoppers. The dimensions are: high price risk, deception risk, transaction failure risk, dissimilar product risk, incapable service risk, illegitimate product risk, isolation risk, unease risk, displeasure risk, prior-purchase time delays risk, and post-purchase time delays risk. The theoretical and managerial implications and research limitations have also been discussed.     

浅谈如何做好建设工程项目成本控制

随着经济的快速发展,越来越多的建设工程项目出现在人们的视野中,建筑市场的竞争愈演愈烈,工程项目利润空间逐渐缩小。因此,建设工程项目成本控制的重要性日益凸显。论文介绍了建设工程项目成本控制需要遵循的原则,分析了建设工程项目成本管理存在的问题,探讨了建设工程项目成本控制的措施。